A Midweek Bounce, Then a Sharp Thursday
SPY slipped 0.43% in the week to October 23 and QQQ fell 0.76%. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to about 4.99%, below 5% for the first time since September 22, after a steep decline on Thursday. Apple closed at a record on Thursday even as the indexes fell. The VIX finished at 19.45, just under Friday’s peak of 19.99 a week earlier.
Weekly changes run from the October 16 close to the October 23 close.
Weekly Market Data (week ending October 23, 2026)
The stock table leads with the weekly change; Friday’s daily change is there for context. Macro rows use each indicator’s own as-of date. CPI and unemployment are the September FRED prints. There was no new CPI or jobs report this week.
| Ticker | Week-Ending Close (USD) | Weekly % Change | Friday Daily % |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 759.97 | -0.43% | -0.52% |
| QQQ | 704.40 | -0.76% | -0.01% |
| AAPL | 347.73 | +1.24% | -0.14% |
| MSFT | 524.51 | -0.86% | +0.66% |
| NVDA | 210.96 | -1.48% | -0.59% |
| TSLA | 372.22 | +4.93% | -0.63% |
| Indicator | Latest Value | As Of | Weekly % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) | 4.99% | 2026-10-23 | -2.16% |
| 10-Year Treasury (FRED DGS10) | 4.96% | 2026-10-22 | — |
| VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) | 19.45 | 2026-10-23 | -2.70% |
| US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) | 101.81 | 2026-10-23 | -0.03% |
| WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) | $103.27 | 2026-10-23 | +1.83% |
| Effective Fed Funds Rate (DFF) | 3.88% | 2026-10-22 | — |
| Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 | — |
| CPI Index (CPIAUCSL) | 336.298 | 2026-09-01 | — |
SPY vs QQQ: The Bounce Did Not Last
Both funds were higher through Wednesday. SPY rose from Friday’s 763.25 to 773.09 on Wednesday, and QQQ rose from 709.80 to 725.20. Thursday reversed that. SPY fell about 1.2% to 763.96 and QQQ fell about 2.9% to 704.47. Friday added another 0.52% decline in SPY, to 759.97, while QQQ was essentially flat at 704.40.
For the full week SPY lost 0.43% and QQQ 0.76%. The gap is smaller than the prior week’s 3.6-point spread, but the growth sleeve still did worse. SPY is about 2.5% below its October 6 record of 779.09. QQQ is about 7.3% below its October 6 record of 759.66. Our SPY vs QQQ guide explains how to read a week when the Nasdaq-100 lags the S&P 500.
Mega-Caps: Apple at a Record, Tesla Up on the Week
Two of the four mega-caps we track beat SPY. Two lagged it.
- Apple gained 1.24% to 347.73. It closed Thursday at 348.22, a record, on the same day the indexes fell. Friday was 0.14% under that high.
- Tesla rose 4.93% to 372.22. Most of the gain was in by Wednesday, when it closed at 386.47. Thursday and Friday gave back part of that and left the week still higher.
- Microsoft fell 0.86% to 524.51, about 3.5% below its October 13 record.
- NVIDIA fell 1.48% to 210.96, about 11.8% below its October 6 record of 239.24.
Apple’s gain and NVIDIA’s loss are why QQQ can fall on a day the largest stock in the market rises. Our mega-cap guide keeps the week-by-week scorecard for these four names.
The 10-Year Breaks Below 5%
The 10-year yield started the week near 5.10% and finished near 4.99%, about 11 basis points lower. The move was not a slow drift. The market quote was 5.14% on Monday, 5.12% on Tuesday and 5.15% on Wednesday, then 4.95% on Thursday and 4.99% on Friday. Thursday was a drop of about 20 basis points in the market quote. FRED’s official series shows 4.96% on October 22, down from 5.13% the day before.
That puts the yield about 32 basis points under the October 5 close of 5.31%, which was the highest since May 2002. FRED’s split of the 10-year, through October 22, shows the further decline is still mostly the real yield. The 10-year real yield was 2.64%, down from 2.74% on October 16. The breakeven inflation rate was 2.32% on October 22 and 2.34% on October 23, close to where it has been all month.
The 2-year yield fell as well, to 4.65% on October 22 from 4.74% on October 16. It is still well above the effective fed funds rate of 3.88%. The Federal Reserve meets on October 27 and 28.
Freddie Mac’s survey on October 22 put the average 30-year mortgage rate at 7.32%, down from 7.40% a week earlier. Mortgage rates followed part of the Treasury decline. The new reading is still above the 7.28% average from October 1.
Inflation and Jobs: No New Prints
September CPI remains the latest inflation reading, with the index at 336.298, about 3.7% above a year earlier. Unemployment is still September’s 4.2%. Neither series updated this week. The next jobs report is due November 6. We covered the September CPI print in last week’s CPI and jobs analysis.
Oil Stays Above $100, and the VIX Stays Near 20
WTI rose 1.83% on the week to $103.27. It dipped to $97.15 on Wednesday, then jumped 3.82% on Friday. Crude above $100 is the same backdrop as the hotter September CPI: energy feeds the headline rate faster than the core rate.
The VIX fell from 19.99 to 19.45, a 2.70% weekly decline that hides a round trip. It eased to 16.68 on Wednesday as stocks bounced, then jumped to 19.03 on Thursday and 19.45 on Friday. A close near 20, after a week when the 10-year fell and stocks did not rally, is a high level of caution relative to early October, when the VIX was in the mid-teens. The dollar index was almost unchanged, down 0.03% to 101.81.
What to Watch
- The Fed meeting on October 27–28. The decision is announced at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28. This meeting does not include a new Summary of Economic Projections. The 2-year yield, at 4.65% on October 22, is the market’s running read on the policy path.
- Whether the 10-year stays under 5%. Thursday’s break below 5% is one session plus Friday’s 4.99% close. A quick move back above 5.15% would make it look like a one-day drop.
- The VIX around 19 to 20. Wednesday showed it can fall toward 17 when stocks bounce. Thursday showed that does not last if the bounce fails.
- Apple’s Thursday record against QQQ. One stock at a high and the Nasdaq-100 7% below its own high is a split market, not a broad one.
This is not financial advice.