Stuck Just Below 5% Into the Fed Decision
The 10-year Treasury yield finished Tuesday, October 27, at 4.99%, about 1 basis point above Monday and about 12 basis points below the October 20 close. It is about 32 basis points under the October 5 high of 5.31%. Oil fell back under $100, to $99.90. The Federal Reserve’s decision is due the next afternoon.
New to Treasury yields? Start with our complete guide to the 10-year yield and weekly archive.
Key Market Data (session close: October 27, 2026)
The tables below reflect the Tuesday, October 27, 2026 U.S. close. Weekly changes run from the October 20 close. FRED’s daily Treasury series are published about one business day later, so their latest values here are for Monday, October 26. This analysis was published on October 28 and uses only data available at Tuesday’s close, before the Fed’s decision.
| Ticker | Close | Daily % Change | Weekly % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 769.66 | +0.56% | +0.08% |
| QQQ | 721.25 | +1.27% | +0.50% |
| AAPL | 347.10 | +0.93% | +2.24% |
| MSFT | 531.33 | -0.24% | -0.10% |
| NVDA | 217.94 | +0.90% | +0.68% |
| TSLA | 407.46 | +4.04% | +9.03% |
| Indicator | Latest Value | As Of | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-Year Treasury (^TNX) | 4.99% | 2026-10-27 | Daily +0.14%; weekly -2.42% |
| 10-Year Treasury (FRED DGS10) | 5.00% | 2026-10-26 | Official daily series |
| 2-Year Treasury (FRED DGS2) | 4.68% | 2026-10-26 | Most sensitive to expected Fed policy |
| 30-Year Treasury (FRED DGS30) | 5.31% | 2026-10-26 | Long end of the curve |
| 10-Year TIPS Real Yield (FRED DFII10) | 2.66% | 2026-10-26 | Yield after inflation |
| 10-Year Breakeven Inflation (FRED T10YIE) | 2.34% | 2026-10-26 | Inflation expected by bond investors |
| 30-Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) | 7.32% | 2026-10-22 | Freddie Mac weekly average |
| Effective Fed Funds Rate (DFF) | 3.88% | 2026-10-26 | Up from 3.63% since September 17 |
| VIX Index (^VIX) | 17.52 | 2026-10-27 | Daily -4.73%; weekly +1.21% |
| US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) | 102.32 | 2026-10-27 | Daily +0.35%; weekly +0.58% |
| WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) | $99.90 | 2026-10-27 | Daily -1.83%; weekly -1.86% |
| CPI Index (CPIAUCSL) | 336.298 | 2026-09-01 | September index, about 3.7% above a year earlier |
Four Closes Just Under 5%
Tuesday’s 0.14% rise in ^TNX is about 1 basis point, from 4.99% to 4.99% when both closes are rounded. Over the week from October 20 the yield is down about 12 basis points, from 5.12%. Since the break under 5% on October 22, the market quote has closed at 4.95%, 4.99%, 4.99% and 4.99%. The drop has paused just below the round number. The October 5 high of 5.31% is still about 32 basis points above Tuesday’s close.
Real Yields Are Still Doing the Work
FRED’s readings through October 26, the latest full set available at Tuesday’s close, compared with October 5:
- 10-year yield: 5.31% to 5.00%, down 31 basis points.
- 10-year real yield: 2.95% to 2.66%, down 29 basis points.
- 10-year breakeven inflation: 2.36% to 2.34%, down 2 basis points.
September CPI at about 3.7% did not lift the breakeven rate. The whole backup into October 5 was a real-yield move, and so is the retreat. The breakeven on October 27 itself was 2.35%, in the same neighborhood. The longer account of the climb is in Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Hit Its Highest Level Since 2002.
The 2-Year Is Off Its Low, and Still Far Above the Funds Rate
The 2-year yield was 4.68% on October 26. That is 3 basis points above the October 22 low of 4.65%, and 16 basis points below the October 5 reading of 4.84%. The 10-year minus 2-year gap was 32 basis points, narrower than the 47 basis points on October 5. The 30-year yield was 5.31%, down from 5.66% on October 5.
The 2-year is still about 80 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.88%. Investors have marked the path of short rates down since the yield peak, and they still see those rates averaging above today’s funds rate over two years. That gap is not a vote on Wednesday’s decision. A quarter-point change is small beside a two-year average. The Federal Reserve Board’s 10-year term premium was 0.94% on October 23, down from 1.10% on October 5.
Oil Under $100, Mortgages Still at 7.32%
WTI fell 1.83% to $99.90. It had closed Friday at $103.27. A finish under $100 takes a little pressure off the next headline CPI print. It does not change the September reading of 3.7%, which is the one the committee already has.
Freddie Mac’s latest survey, on October 22, left the 30-year mortgage rate at 7.32%, down from 7.40% the week before. The next survey is due October 29, after the Fed decision. The gap versus a 10-year near 5% is still a bit wider than 2 percentage points.
Stocks Rose Again, Led by Tesla
SPY gained 0.56% to 769.66, about 1.2% below its October 6 record. QQQ gained 1.27% to 721.25 and is about 5.1% below its own record. Tesla rose another 4.04% to 407.46 and is up 9.03% from the October 20 close. Apple gained 0.93% to 347.10, still just under the October 22 record of 348.22. The VIX fell 4.73% to 17.52, a second down day, and it is still above the mid-teens range from earlier in the month. The dollar index rose 0.35% to 102.32.
What to Watch
- The decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28. The target range is 3.75%–4.00%. The Chair’s press conference is at 2:30 p.m. There is no new Summary of Economic Projections. The 2-year yield is the first place a surprise shows up. The setup is in What the Data Says Ahead of the October 28 Fed Decision, and the time is on the economic calendar.
- Whether 4.99% holds after the statement. Four closes just under 5% is a pause. The decision can end it in either direction.
- The real yield near 2.66%. It has accounted for nearly all of the move down from 5.31%. A jump in the breakeven rate would be a different kind of selloff.
- Thursday’s mortgage survey. It will be the first reading since the 10-year closed under 5%.
This is not financial advice.