Stocks Hold Up Through a Fed Hike and 5.3% Yields
This is the weekly U.S. macro report for the week ending Friday, October 2, 2026. Weekly changes run from the September 25 close to the October 2 close.
The week’s main facts: the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29% on Wednesday, its highest close since May 2002, and finished the week near 5.28%. The September jobs report on Friday showed unemployment edging up to 4.2%. QQQ gained 0.68% and set a record close on Friday, while SPY slipped 0.22%. All of this came about two weeks after the Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point.
Weekly Market Data (week ending October 2, 2026)
The stock table leads with the weekly change; Friday’s daily change is there for context. Macro rows use each indicator’s own as-of date. CPI and unemployment are monthly FRED series and trail market prices by weeks.
| Ticker | Week-Ending Close (USD) | Weekly % Change | Friday Daily % |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 769.64 | -0.22% | +0.74% |
| QQQ | 749.58 | +0.68% | +1.02% |
| AAPL | 333.69 | -2.16% | +1.02% |
| MSFT | 517.53 | +0.26% | +0.92% |
| NVDA | 233.95 | +3.95% | +1.34% |
| TSLA | 370.59 | -0.41% | +4.65% |
| Indicator | Latest Value | As Of | Weekly % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) | 5.28% | 2026-10-02 | +1.79% |
| 10-Year Treasury (FRED DGS10) | 5.24% | 2026-10-01 | — |
| VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) | 15.31 | 2026-10-02 | +2.96% |
| US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) | 101.93 | 2026-10-02 | +0.95% |
| WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) | $91.11 | 2026-10-02 | -1.41% |
| Effective Fed Funds Rate (DFF) | 3.88% | 2026-10-01 | — |
| Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 | — |
| CPI Index (CPIAUCSL) | 334.131 | 2026-08-01 | — |
Stocks: Three Down Days, Two Up
SPY fell on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, then rose on Thursday and Friday, ending the week down 0.22%. QQQ fell only on Monday and rose on the other four days, finishing 0.68% higher, and its Friday close of 749.58 was a record. SPY remains about 1.1% below its August 13 closing high.
Among the four mega-caps we track, NVIDIA did the most work, gaining 3.95%. Microsoft was roughly flat at +0.26%. Apple fell 2.16%, much of it on Tuesday. Tesla ended down only 0.41% after falling more than 5% early in the week and jumping 4.65% on Friday. Our mega-cap guide covers how to read these moves against volume.
Rates: A New High, Then a Pause
The 10-year yield rose for a seventh straight session on Wednesday and closed at 5.29%. It had not closed that high since May 2002. It dropped to 5.24% on Thursday and ended Friday near 5.28%, up about 9 basis points on the week.
That is half the previous week’s rise of about 18 basis points, so the climb slowed. It did not reverse. Since the Fed’s decision in mid-September, the 10-year has risen about 27 basis points, slightly more than the Fed’s own quarter-point increase. Mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs tend to follow the 10-year, so for households and companies the bond market’s move has mattered at least as much as the Fed’s.
The Fed and the Jobs Report
FRED’s daily data shows the effective fed funds rate rising from 3.63% to 3.88% on September 17, with the Fed’s target range now at 3.75%–4.00%. It is the first increase since at least mid-2025: the monthly average fell from 4.33% in the summer of 2025 to about 3.63%, where it held for most of 2026. FRED’s monthly average for September came in at 3.75% because it mixes days before and after the change.
Friday’s jobs report put unemployment at 4.2%, up from 4.1% in July and August. A year earlier it was 4.4%, so unemployment is still lower than in late 2025. Our data covers the unemployment rate only, not payrolls or wages, so we cannot say which part of the report moved markets. The reaction was calm: stocks rose, the VIX fell 6.59% on the day, and the 10-year yield edged up.
Inflation: Waiting for September CPI
The latest CPI reading is still August. The index stood at 334.131, about 3.4% above a year earlier, up from about 3.3% in July. Inflation running well above the Fed’s 2% goal is the backdrop for both the rate increase and the climb in long-term yields. The September CPI report, due in mid-October, is the next big test for both.
Oil and the Dollar
WTI crude slipped 1.41% to $91.11, and it has fallen about 9% from $100.05 three weeks ago. Lower oil prices take some pressure off headline inflation, so they are not what pushed yields higher. The dollar index rose 0.95% to 101.93, which fits the usual pattern of higher U.S. yields drawing money into dollar assets.
Three Weeks Since Our Last Report
Our last weekly report covered the week ending September 11. Since then, the Fed has raised rates, the 10-year yield has risen from about 4.97% to 5.28%, and the dollar index has gained about 2.8%. Over the same three weeks QQQ is up about 4.9% and SPY about 0.7%. The VIX is almost unchanged, at 15.31 versus 15.84. Higher rates have not shaken the stock market as a whole, but the gains have gone mostly to large growth companies.
What to Watch
- September CPI. A reading above August’s 3.4% annual pace would add to rate pressure.
- The 10-year near 5.3%. A close above Wednesday’s 5.29% would be a new high for this move.
- QQQ versus SPY. A record for QQQ while SPY stays below its August high means fewer, larger companies are doing the lifting.
- The VIX. At 15.31 it is still in its normal range. A jump above 20 alongside rising yields would signal that the rate move is starting to worry stock investors.
This is not financial advice.