QQQ Keeps Its Edge Over SPY as the 10-Year Hits 5.29%
On Wednesday, September 30, the last trading day of the third quarter, QQQ rose 0.25% while SPY fell 0.21%. All four mega-caps we track finished higher. The same day, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at about 5.29%, its highest close since May 2002. Growth stocks are usually the ones that suffer when long-term rates climb, yet over the past three weeks QQQ has gained about 3.3% while SPY has gone nowhere.
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Key Market Data (session close: September 30, 2026)
Stock rows reflect the Wednesday, September 30, 2026 U.S. close, and the 52-week high column shows each ticker’s high as of that date. Macro rows use each indicator’s own as-of date. FRED’s monthly fed funds average for August no longer reflects the current rate, so the table shows the daily effective rate instead.
| Ticker | Close | Daily % Change | Weekly % Change | 52-Week High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 762.63 | -0.21% | -0.67% | 779.37 |
| QQQ | 739.77 | +0.25% | -0.19% | 748.65 |
| AAPL | 333.02 | +1.10% | -1.19% | 345.34 |
| MSFT | 512.90 | +0.77% | +2.46% | 553.72 |
| NVDA | 228.38 | +0.51% | +1.27% | 236.54 |
| TSLA | 354.81 | +0.56% | -6.66% | 498.83 |
| Indicator | Latest Value | As Of | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) | 5.29% | 2026-09-30 | Daily +0.72%; weekly +3.50% |
| 10-Year Treasury (FRED DGS10) | 5.26% | 2026-09-29 | Official daily series, one session behind ^TNX |
| VIX Index (^VIX) | 16.34 | 2026-09-30 | Daily +1.87%; weekly +7.64% |
| US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) | 101.45 | 2026-09-30 | Daily +0.08%; weekly +0.35% |
| WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) | $90.42 | 2026-09-30 | Daily +1.16%; weekly -1.89% |
| Effective Fed Funds Rate (DFF) | 3.88% | 2026-09-29 | Up from 3.63% since September 17 |
| Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 | August reading |
| CPI Index (CPIAUCSL) | 334.131 | 2026-08-01 | August index level, about 3.4% above a year earlier |
Mega-Caps Up, SPY Down
Wednesday’s split is the clearest breadth signal of the week. Apple rose 1.10%, Microsoft 0.77%, Tesla 0.56% and NVIDIA 0.51%. QQQ, which leans heavily on companies like these, gained 0.25%. SPY still closed 0.21% lower.
These four are among the largest weights in the S&P 500, so an SPY decline on a day they all rose means losses elsewhere in the index outweighed their gains. Our tables do not include an equal-weight index or a count of rising and falling stocks, so we cannot say how many stocks fell. We can only say the rest of the market was weaker than its biggest names.
Volume was unusual. SPY traded about 62.1 million shares, roughly 140% of its 44.2 million average, on a day it moved only 0.21%. Quarter-end is when many funds rebalance their portfolios, which is a plausible reason for the heavy trading, though the data cannot confirm it. QQQ traded about 84% of its average.
The Week: A Narrow QQQ Lead
Over the five sessions since September 23, QQQ slipped 0.19% and SPY 0.67%, a gap of about half a percentage point in QQQ’s favor. The four large names split two ways. Microsoft gained 2.46% and NVIDIA 1.27%. Apple fell 1.19%, mostly on Tuesday’s 2.66% drop, and Tesla lost 6.66%, the weakest result of the group. A half-point lead that rests on two strong names while two others fell is a thin one.
Three Weeks of Growth Leadership
The bigger story appears when you go back to our last breadth post, for September 9. Since then QQQ is up about 3.3%, from 716.31 to 739.77. SPY is up 0.03%, from 762.40 to 762.63. QQQ set a record close of 747.46 on September 22 and finished Wednesday about 1% below it. SPY sits about 2% below its August 13 closing high of 777.88.
That happened while rates moved against growth stocks. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, and FRED’s daily effective rate moved from 3.63% to 3.88% on September 17. The 10-year yield rose from about 4.84% on September 9 to 5.29%, roughly 45 basis points. Higher long-term yields reduce what future profits are worth today, which usually hurts growth stocks most because more of their value depends on earnings far in the future. For these three weeks, that pattern did not hold at the index level.
What the Gap Does and Does Not Mean
QQQ beating SPY tells you large technology and growth companies did better than the broad market. It does not tell you the market is healthy. A widening gap can come from strength in a handful of companies while most stocks lag, which is what analysts call narrow leadership. Wednesday was a small example of it: the biggest names rose and the cap-weighted S&P 500 still fell.
It also does not mean higher rates stopped mattering. Tesla, whose valuation depends most on long-term expectations, lost 6.66% on the week, and the VIX rose 7.64% to 16.34. The numbers show money concentrating in a few of the largest companies while borrowing costs rose. They do not show why.
Tracking the Gap Yourself
The simplest way to follow this is to divide QQQ’s price by SPY’s. On September 9 the ratio was about 0.940. On Wednesday it was about 0.970. A rising ratio means QQQ is leading; a falling one means the broad market is catching up or growth is lagging. Single-day changes are noisy, so the trend over several weeks matters more than any one session. Wednesday’s daily gap of about 0.46 percentage points is roughly the same size as the full week’s gap, which shows how much one day can move the weekly comparison.
What to Watch
- The September jobs report. It is scheduled for Friday, October 2. Unemployment was 4.1% in August, and a change in either direction could move yields after their sharp September climb.
- Whether yields keep rising. The 10-year has closed higher than the day before in seven straight sessions. Further gains would test whether QQQ can keep leading.
- QQQ’s record close of 747.46. A new high while SPY stays below its August peak would extend the three-week pattern.
- Days like Wednesday. More sessions where mega-caps rise and SPY falls would point to leadership getting narrower.
This is not financial advice.